Betting on penalty kicks in football: How to profit

Penalty kicks are an integral part of football. In approximately every fourth match, referees award a penalty for fouls in the penalty area. Additionally, penalty shootouts often occur after regular or extra time to determine the winner in cup matches.

It’s no surprise that bookmakers offer lines on penalties: whether a penalty will be awarded if there will be a penalty shootout, and even combined bets. Not all bookmakers offer lines on penalties, but Fonbet, for example, provides high odds and a wide range of such events.

In this guide, we will explore how to bet on penalties, the strategies for these bets, and the common mistakes to avoid to increase your chances of winning.

Bookmakers offer various odds related to penalty kicks. Let’s look at the types of outcomes available to bettors:

1. Will a Penalty Be Awarded? – You can bet on whether a penalty will be awarded in the match. The odds of a penalty being awarded can exceed 4.00, while the odds for no penalty are usually around 1.25. Exact values depend on the league and whether VAR is in use.
2. The goal from a Penalty – Bettors can wager on whether a penalty kick will result in a goal. If the penalty is missed or saved, the bet loses.
3. Penalty Saved – This bet wins only if the goalkeeper saves the penalty. If the ball misses the goal entirely, the bet loses.

Additionally, there are combined bets, such as “penalty and a red card.” In such cases, the referee must award a penalty for a foul in the penalty area and show a red card to any player during the match.

To place successful penalty bets, you need to analyze statistics. The football world is diverse: some leagues have VAR assistance, while others have lower referee standards — factors influencing penalty decisions.

If referees have VAR, the likelihood of a penalty increases due to video reviews. Similarly, in lower-tier leagues with less experienced referees, penalties are more likely to be awarded.

Study referee statistics. Knowing the average number of penalties awarded can help you choose matches with odds of 4.00 or higher.

The importance of the match also affects penalty decisions. In crucial games, referees might avoid awarding penalties even if there is a clear handball in the penalty area.

Penalty shootouts are common in playoff matches. Before the game, you can bet on the match ending in a draw in regular and extra time, leading to a penalty shootout. This strategy is ideal for matches between two defensive teams, especially in finals.

During a penalty shootout, you can bet on who will win and which penalties will be scored. One exciting but risky bet is that the second team will win, especially if the first team scores their initial penalty.

Other options include the total number of penalties in the shootout and whether a specific numbered penalty will be scored.

To succeed with these bets, study the teams’ statistics, particularly their penalty conversion rates. Then, bet on penalties if one team’s forwards have a significantly better scoring record.

Analyzing penalty shootouts is challenging because they are rare, and many players do not take penalties throughout the season.

Popular strategies focus on referees: if certain referees award more penalties than usual, consider betting on matches they officiate.

Control your bankroll and practice risk management to avoid significant losses after a few bets.

Here are some common mistakes when betting on penalties:

1. Varying Bet Sizes from Match to Match – Inconsistent bet sizes can lead to unpredictable results.
2. Betting a High Percentage of the Bankroll on High Odds – High odds come with high risks, so avoid staking too much of your bankroll.
3. Lack of Match Analysis Before Betting – Failing to analyze the match thoroughly can lead to poor betting decisions.

We recommend selecting matches carefully and remembering that the number of penalties awarded is challenging to predict due to various factors influencing the referee’s decision. The same applies to penalty shootouts, where the outcome can depend on more than just the players’ skills or the teams’ divisions.